Don’t Draft A Defenceman With A Top Three Pick

With all the Seth Jones vs Nathan Mackinnon vs Jonathan Drouin talk going on, I thought it would be interesting to look back and see how other top picks have panned out. I’ve excluded the last two drafts because of the limited sample size for evaluation.

Like many others, I believe in the philosophy of taking the best player available regardless of position. While that’s typically the case, the top three to five picks usually allow teams to be a little more positionally selective.

Passing on the elite offensive talent that a top five pick usually provides, is not a wise decision. I understand the critical importance of a defenceman, but their development is typically slower and their more difficult to project.

If it wasn’t clear already, I would not take Seth Jones first overall if I were the Colorado Avalanche, I would take Nathan Mackinnon without hesitation. In fact, I would’t even take Seth Jones 2nd overall, I would take Jonathan Drouin who might have the highest ceiling on the three. Third overall is were I would draft Jones and past draft history shows that might be the logical place to take him, maybe even a pick too high.

From 2001-2010, fourteen defenceman were drafted with a top five pick. (50 players)

• 14 out of 50 or 28% of the top five picks were defenceman
• Within that 28%, 4 out of 14 would be in the top three if each draft re-ranked their top five picks today. (IMO)
• So, 4 out of 50 or 8% of players drafted top five over the last ten years are defenceman and a bonafide top 3 pick if re-ranked.

I understand these numbers have many holes, but I think it illustrates how rare and unlikely it is for a defenceman to become the best player among his fellow top five picks.

D-man Drafted Top Five (2001-2010)

**My rank today within their respective top five in ().

Erik Gubranson (3)- 2010

Victor Hedman (4)- 2009

Drew Doughty (2)- 2008

Alex Pietrangelo (3)- 2008

Zach Bogosian (4)- 2008

Luke Schenn (5)- 2008

Thomas Hickey (5)- 2007

Karl Alzner (4)- 2007

Erik Johnson (5)- 2006

Jack Johnson (4)- 2005

Cam Barker (5)- 2004

Jay Bouwmeester (3)- 2002

Joni Pitkanen (4)- 2002

Ryan Whitney (5)- 2002

Top Five Picks from 2001-2012

2012

#	Player	Nationality	NHL Team	College/Junior/Club Team
1	Nail Yakupov (LW)	Russia	Edmonton Oilers	Sarnia (OHL)
2	Ryan Murray (D)	Canada	Columbus Blue Jackets	Everett (WHL)
3	Alex Galchenyuk (C)	United States	Montreal Canadiens	Sarnia (OHL)
4	Griffin Reinhart (D)	Canada	New York Islanders	Edmonton (WHL)
5	Morgan Rielly (D)	Canada	Toronto Maple Leafs	Moose Jaw (WHL)

2011

#	Player	Nationality	NHL Team	College/Junior/Club Team
1	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C)	Canada	Edmonton Oilers	Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
2	Gabriel Landeskog (RW)	Sweden	Colorado Avalanche	Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
3	Jonathan Huberdeau (C)	Canada	Florida Panthers	Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)
4	Adam Larsson (D)	Sweden	New Jersey Devils	Skellefteå AIK (Sweden-SEL)
5	Ryan Strome (C)	Canada	New York Islanders	Niagara IceDogs (OHL)

2010

Pick #	Player	Nationality	Position	NHL team	Team from	League from
1	Taylor Hall	Canada	LW	Edmonton Oilers	Windsor Spitfires	Ontario Hockey League
2	Tyler Seguin	Canada	C	Boston Bruins (from Toronto)1	Plymouth Whalers	Ontario Hockey League
3	Erik Gudbranson	Canada	D	Florida Panthers	Kingston Frontenacs	Ontario Hockey League
4	Ryan Johansen	Canada	C	Columbus Blue Jackets	Portland Winterhawks	Western Hockey League
5	Nino Niederreiter	Switzerland	LW	New York Islanders	Portland Winterhawks	Western Hockey League

2009

ick #	Player	Nationality	Position	NHL team	Team from	League from
1	John Tavares	Canada	C	New York Islanders	London Knights	Ontario Hockey League
2	Victor Hedman	Sweden	D	Tampa Bay Lightning	Modo Hockey	Elitserien (Sweden)
3	Matt Duchene	Canada	C	Colorado Avalanche	Brampton Battalion	Ontario Hockey League
4	Evander Kane	Canada	C	Atlanta Thrashers	Vancouver Giants	Western Hockey League
5	Brayden Schenn	Canada	C	Los Angeles Kings	Brandon Wheat Kings	Western Hockey League

2008

#	Player	Nationality	NHL team	College/junior/club team
1	Steven Stamkos (centre)	Canada	Tampa Bay Lightning	Sarnia Sting (OHL)
2	Drew Doughty (defence)	Canada	Los Angeles Kings	Guelph Storm (OHL)
3	Zach Bogosian (defense)	United States	Atlanta Thrashers	Peterborough Petes (OHL)
4	Alex Pietrangelo (defence)	Canada	St. Louis Blues	Niagara IceDogs (OHL)
5	Luke Schenn (defence)	Canada	Toronto Maple Leafs (from New York Islanders)	Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

2007

#	Player	Nationality	NHL Team	College/Junior Club/European Team
1	Patrick Kane (Right Wing)	United States	Chicago Blackhawks	London Knights (OHL)
2	James van Riemsdyk (Left Wing)	United States	Philadelphia Flyers	US National Team Development Program (NAHL)
3	Kyle Turris (Centre)	Canada	Phoenix Coyotes	Burnaby Express (BCHL)
4	Thomas Hickey (Defence)	Canada	Los Angeles Kings	Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
5	Karl Alzner (Defence)	Canada	Washington Capitals	Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

2006

#	Player	Nationality	NHL team	College/junior/club team
1	Erik Johnson (Defense)	United States	St. Louis Blues	US National Team Development Program (NAHL)
2	Jordan Staal (Center)	Canada	Pittsburgh Penguins	Peterborough Petes (OHL)
3	Jonathan Toews (Center)	Canada	Chicago Blackhawks	University of North Dakota (WCHA)
4	Nicklas Backstrom (Center)	Sweden	Washington Capitals	Brynäs IF (Sweden)
5	Phil Kessel (C/RW)	United States	Boston Bruins	University of Minnesota Golden Gophers (WCHA)

2005

#	Player	Nationality	NHL team	College/junior/club team
1	Sidney Crosby (Centre)	Canada	Pittsburgh Penguins	Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL)
2	Bobby Ryan (Right Wing)	United States	Mighty Ducks of Anaheim	Owen Sound Attack (OHL)
3	Jack Johnson (Defence)	United States	Carolina Hurricanes	U.S. National Team Development Program (NAHL)
4	Benoit Pouliot (Left Wing)	Canada	Minnesota Wild	Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
5	Carey Price (Goaltender)	Canada	Montreal Canadiens	Tri-City Americans (WHL)

2004

#	Player	Nationality	NHL team	College/junior/club team
1	Alexander Ovechkin (Left Wing) *	Russia	Washington Capitals	Dynamo Moscow (Russia)
2	Evgeni Malkin (Center) *	Russia	Pittsburgh Penguins	Metallurg Magnitogorsk (Russia)
3.	Cam Barker (Defense)	Canada	Chicago Blackhawks	Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
4.	Andrew Ladd (Left Wing)	Canada	Carolina Hurricanes (from Columbus)1	Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
5.	Blake Wheeler (Right Wing)	United States	Phoenix Coyotes	University Of Minnesota (NCAA)

2003

#	Player	Nationality	NHL team	College/junior/club team
1	Marc-Andre Fleury (Goaltender)	Canada	Pittsburgh Penguins (from Florida)	Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL)
2	Eric Staal (Centre)	Canada	Carolina Hurricanes	Peterborough Petes (OHL)
3	Nathan Horton (Right Wing)	Canada	Florida Panthers (from Pittsburgh)	Oshawa Generals (OHL)
4	Nikolai Zherdev (Right Wing)	Russia	Columbus Blue Jackets	CSKA Moscow (Russia)
5	Thomas Vanek (Left Wing)	Austria	Buffalo Sabres	University of Minnesota (NCAA)

2002

#	Player	Nationality	NHL team	College/junior/club team
1	Rick Nash (forward)	Canada	Columbus Blue Jackets (from Florida)	London Knights (OHL)
2	Kari Lehtonen (goaltender)	Finland	Atlanta Thrashers	Jokerit (Finland)
3	Jay Bouwmeester (defence)	Canada	Florida Panthers (from Columbus)	Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
4	Joni Pitkanen (defence)	Finland	Philadelphia Flyers (from Tampa Bay)	Kärpät (Finland)
5	Ryan Whitney (defence)	United States	Pittsburgh Penguins	Boston University (NCAA)

2001

Pick	Player	Nationality	NHL Team	College/Junior/Club Team
1.	Ilya Kovalchuk (Left Wing)	Russia	Atlanta Thrashers	Spartak Moscow (Russia)
2.	Jason Spezza (Centre)	Canada	Ottawa Senators (from New York Islanders)	Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
3.	Alexander Svitov (Centre)	Russia	Tampa Bay Lightning	Avangard Omsk (Russia)
4.	Stephen Weiss (Centre)	Canada	Florida Panthers	Plymouth Whalers (OHL)
5.	Stanislav Chistov (Left Wing)	Russia	Mighty Ducks of Anaheim	Avangard Omsk (Russia)